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Why Cardiff City May Still Need Another 15 Points From Eight Games In Order To Avoid Relegation

Ian MitchelmoreIan Mitchelmore20 March 2025
Omer Riza manager of Cardiff CitY. Pic: Credit Alamy

Omer Riza manager of Cardiff CitY. Pic: Credit Alamy

It will soon be crunch time for Cardiff City as they bid to stay in the Championship and build on their slender advantage.

Crushing disappointment undoubtedly took hold as referee Adam Herczeg awarded Blackburn Rovers a penalty in added time of their Championship clash with Cardiff City.

Mercifully, for the Bluebirds, and in particular for boss Omer Riza, the official reversed his decision after consulting with one of his assistants as Cardiff held on for a vital 2-1 win at Ewood Park, thanks to goals from Yousef Salech and Yakou Meite.

Many feared the writing was on the wall for Riza had Cardiff lost or even failed to beat Blackburn in their final fixture prior to the international break.

But the precious victory in Lancashire ensures Cardiff remain a point above the second-tier relegation zone with eight matches to play.

Make no mistake, Cardiff remain firmly in trouble - particularly following the recent improvement of Derby and Luton, who have both found some fresh hope in their fight to beat the drop into League One.

A fortnight without club action will afford the key decision makers at Cardiff City Stadium some much-needed time to ponder Riza's situation and ultimately determine whether or not they stick or twist with the man who replaced Erol Bulut earlier this season.

No side currently in the bottom half of the Championship will yet feel certain of staving off relegation this season - with only 11 points separating Norwich City in 13th and Derby in 22nd.

But the likes of Preston, QPR and Swansea City have suddenly found themselves looking over their shoulders as a result of improved showings from a number of sides below them.

Only eight matches remain of the regular season, and Cardiff's destiny crucially still lies in their own hands.

READ MORE: Angry Omer Riza Admits Cardiff City Are “Flawed” As Relegation Threat Looms

But having collected just 39 points from 38 matches, how many more points will they need to preserve their Championship status?

Let's take a look through the history books.

In 20 full seasons since the English Football League was rebranded in 2004, sides finishing 21st in the Championship have averaged 48 points after 46 matches.

Reading finished directly above the bottom three with just 41 points in 2021-22, while Barnsley needed 55 points during the 2012-13 campaign to finish 21st.

Six teams had the dubious honour of claiming 50 or more points and still being relegated into the third tier:

2004-05 - Gillingham (50 pts)
2007-08 - Leicester (52 pts)
2012-13 - Peterborough (54 pts) and Wolves (51 pts)
2016-17 - Blackburn (51 pts)
2023-24 - Birmingham (50 pts)

So, Cardiff will probably need at least another nine points – and maybe as much as 15 points, with eight games left to play.

READ MORE: Yak Attack Gives Omer Riza Some Breathing Space . . . But Cardiff City Boss Demands More

Despite an improvement under Miron Muslić following the sacking of Wayne Rooney, Plymouth remain the favourites to be relegated from the Championship, although even the Pilgrims find themselves just six points adrift of safety.

Derby's run of three successive wins has massively shaken up the race for survival while Hull's squad strength has finally started to shine through.

The Rams also take on Luton, Hull and Stoke across their final four games of the season, so expect plenty more twists and turns.

With relegation rivals Stoke and Oxford still to visit Cardiff City Stadium over the final weeks of the season, the Bluebirds know that those two fixtures could be key.

Riza - should he remain in the dugout - will take immense comfort from the fact that January signing Salech has proven to be a huge hit, having scored six goals in all competitions since joining from Swedish side Sirius, while Will Alves has also impressed during his loan stint from Leicester so far.

READ MORE: Vincent Tan Is The Big Player At Cardiff City . . . Now He’s Playing Omer Riza

In the aftermath of the gut-wrenching 2-1 loss at home to Luton, Riza stated "players are not taking responsibility and we are in trouble".

It was certainly a bold outcry from the manager, one that could easily have backfired spectacularly.

But the response, and result at Blackburn, appeared to show that the players are behind the 45-year-old - who delivered an impassioned seven-minute impromptu speech about the club's situation in his pre-match press conference ahead of the contest with Rovers.

Whether or not owner Vincent Tan opts to make a managerial change prior to the final block of fixtures of the season - in a desperate bid to stave off relegation -  remains to be seen.

But the late slice of luck which helped to secure an unexpected triumph in Lancashire could well provide the Bluebirds with the lift they so desperately craved at a  vital stage of the season - just as the trap door had appeared destined to open below them.

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